Category: Startups

Disruption

~ michael_msft ~ 1 Comment

Picked up on this article by Steve Blank over the weekend – such a good read.

I have worked at a few places in my life – startups, corporates, corporates in decline (Yahoo) and joint ventures masked as vehicles for corporates to try and stem declines (HOOQ). All of them share critical components but the corporates trying to deal with disruption can be very interesting. They don’t have it easy but they also continue to display the classic behaviors that got them to where they are in the first place. 

I notice in the local space that there is not a lot of investigative journalism into the big corporates around Singapore. I am guessing it is too touchy of a subject or maybe doesn’t drive page views. Hard to say.

Having just left HOOQ I would like to say a few things about it since I am asked many times why I went from startup land, Spuul, to pseudo startup land – HOOQ. 

Let me list a few reasons:

– I wanted the chance to get to know Singapore Inc. more closely.

– I wanted exposure to Sony and Warner.

– I was generally intrigued by the concept – 2 big studios work with local telco to try and do something cool in OTT.

– The plan had a solid model – the plan that is. The execution – not so much.

I went into the gig with my eyes wide open. I would learn, I would network and I would gain much needed experience on how to deal with a big corporate giant, actually three of them, trying to innovate. I would have a seat at the board meetings – huge learning opportunity. Boards can help a lot if done right.

Lastly, most importantly for me – I would try and see if I could buck the trend of a large corporate trying a new way to innovate but normally failing. The model had the right ingredients – a joint venture versus a subsidiary, good partners, a worthy business to go after and funds. Most startups don’t have these ingredients but then again most startups also don’t come with any baggage. Usually startups have a green field advantage and the right to make plans as they go whereas a joint venture is immediately plagued with too much funds, large parents to make happy and long range planning processes.

Frankly – it is too early to tell what will happen. Right now the market for OTT in emerging markets is early days. It is all about funding, posturing and moon shots. Obviously Netflix and Amazon will be the largest global players. As I keep saying to folks who constantly ask – who is the Amazon of India – Amazon. Just wait and see.

However folks tend to only thing big and forget that there are some healthy niche businesses out there – take Spuul for example. Doing well, but most folks only want to hear about big fund raising or other PR noteworthy milestones as examples of success.

For video we tend to think of Netflix or maybe YouTube. Right now the YouTube of emerging markets is YouTube. The Netflix for emerging markets – is also probably YouTube cause free and piracy are still the leader around the emerging markets. The idea of building out a robust, and profitable, paid OTT service for the emerging markets is still a work in progress.

HOOQ has a shot but iFlix appears to have the early lead. Will guys like Rakuten, Alibaba and HotStar emerge to try and go big? Don’t know yet. Will Netflix and Amazon slowly take over? Possibly. Will Google eventually get it right around the globe when it comes to premium content? I think not likely. Apple – well, they just seem to suck at emerging markets when it comes to payment models so I am not hopeful.

The race is on. I will continue to armchair quarterback it and share more insights as I go.

Fixing Samui – life as a product guy…

~ michael_msft ~ 1 Comment

Closing out my holiday. Bummed but also miss my kids, but my wife is back and I am ready for my new journey.

I realize that in many ways I am my father. My dad is a mechanic – he fixes cars, build houses and generally tinkers. I wish I was half the man he was when it comes to fixing things. His ability to diagnose a problem and solve it never ceases to amaze me. He helped me build my first car as a way to teach me self reliance and to have my own wheels. 

Loved that ride.

Anytime I am on holiday, I never really shut down, I am constantly thinking about how to make my life better – how to be happier. How to enjoy myself more. Problem is that I can’t control my surroundings.

After my wife finished her Yoga School, we decided to spend a few nights in Koh Samui chilling out before heading home. I found a nice rate on Agoda for The Kala Samui. It’s always hard to pick a place but I like to stay away from the riff-raff and enjoy a bout of good service. The Kala looked like it might work for that.

The main problem I have with the Kala has nothing to do with the the Kala apart from breakfast. I never understand why these places always think everyone wants a breakfast buffett that costs an arm and a leg. We don’t. I would rather be able to order some eggs, some toast and a decent filter coffee. That would be awesome. But no, The Kala only offers a buffet. No thanks.

The other issue is the ridiculous transportation situation on the island. It sucks. Taxis that essentially charge form 300-600 baht to go anywhere. The songthaews are not any better – tryin to charge the same for sitting in the back of a bouncy vehicle pretending that the mere act of offering you a ride at exorbitant rates is costing them the school fees for their kids. So much angst.

It reminds me of Kuala Lumpur, prior to Uber, where getting around town just sucked. The last few trips to KL were awesome though. I never dealt with a taxi driver one time. Not once. Uber was there for me. Say what you will about Uber but taxis in KL suck. They are the worst.

Taxis in Samui are just as bad. Ruining your stay by never offering to us the meter and walking away when you do ask. Many folks might say just rent a motorcycle but as an experienced motorcycle rider we all know that going down is going down. When you wake up in the hospital trying to remember how you got there you won’t be concerned about how you went down or that it wasn’t your fault. You will just be worried about your busted leg or your missing skin. Renting a motorcycle is not a option for me in accident prone Thailand.

Samui would be just perfect with Uber.

I perked up a little when I say some signs for NaviGo Samui. Downloaded it and after the Facebook connect login failed I have given up since it presented me with like 7 fields to fill in. Let’s be honest. It only needs about two so after Facebook connect failed I bailed. So much for that.

Folks – if you want people to use your app during an impulse, for fuck’s sake make the login easy. 

Back to enjoying Samui. There were are at 8pm trying to get to our hotel. Starting from 500 baht and working our way down to 300. Kind of puts a damper on the holiday.

Anyways. Fuck taxis. Roll on Uber.

Yes, I know this is SEA and we have Grab but frankly their support sucks. Still does.

Maybe I can influence Linda to fix it.
 

Finally met up with Josh

~ michael_msft ~ 1 Comment

I didn’t get to attend the TIA conference but was able to catch up with lots of folks who were in town and went to a nice event by Sequoia.

Say what you will about our current times but Singapore is absolutely hopping right now and is the center of the startup universe for SEA region and India. Love it. So fortunate to be here at this time.

I have many Twitter friends that I sometimes get to meet and Josh would be one of those. We finally got to hang out and chat a bit.

As a writer, he of course decided to spring this on the Internet after we chatted.

Good stuff. As I always tell people – OTT in emerging markets is really just kicking off and has a long ways to go. I wouldn’t profess to know where it all might land, but it’s a crazy hot space regardless.

One comment – that last little quote by iFlix – we all know 1 million is just registered users. Paying subs will be some marginal single digit percentage point of that total number. As I always say – release real stats or none at all.

Good chatting with you Josh – I guess we will keep up the Twitter DM dialogue going till we meet again.

My day with Ratan Tata

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

I’ll start with this write up from TIA.

A day with Ratan Tata//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js

Yesterday, Jungle Ventures, hosted a morning with Ratan Tata and the founders of their portfolio companies – then later in the day an event with their LP’s.

I was allowed to tag along and spend some time hanging with the crew.

This is the second time in my life I have met him but this time I was offered a whole day and a chance to speak with him directly for a bit while we had lunch.

First off, I am just stunned by how humble he was and extremely gracious with his time and thoughts.

The article highlighted his frequent response of “I don’t know”, but it was usually his response to an unclear or unconcise question. Or a question he just didn’t have an answer to.

That being said he always had advice or thoughts but just did not always give a specific answer. He was more into the theory or lesson to be learned in discovering your own answer and any advice he could offer to enhance your discovery.

I could go on and on with what I learned and the stories around Nano, Land Rover, Jaguar, and just running a huge org were priceless.

I was further stunned to catch him in the lobby, alone, carrying his hotel reciept after checking himself out. 

Just a man of the people. Which is sometimes hard to grasp given his stature.

It further cements his advice about ethics, empathy and solving real problems of the world.

I am still in awe.

Google copied my playbook ;)

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

It’s funny how much a lead Yahoo threw away. First there is the global rise of messaging as a platform – remember Yahoo messenger?

Then there is the need to chase the emerging markets opportunity but rather than do it from Silicon Valley – you place the problem with people from the market.

Now google goes and acquires Pie.co to help them with emerging markets software talent. Great move.

Amazes me at times to see how bad Yahoo is blowing it and how they had so many of the pieces needed to compete.

Oh well…

Of course Apple’s so called streaming service is a no-show

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

Not a very thorough article but jogged my memory some :: http://www.techinsider.io/apple-streaming-tv-service-delayed-2016-2

I think people don’t realize that the launch of Netflix global is going to set everything back a bit before things can move forward. I love watching all the haters coming out and bashing the OTT companies over content or VPN issues. Folks – you are bashing the wrong crew. It’s the content owners to bitch at – not the streamers.

The world of content rights is such a mess it’s not even funny. Just look at all the audio guys – even Pandora can’t make money. The only guys making money in streaming audio are the owners of the rights and the infrastructure guys. Not the artists or the streaming companies. Spotify is huge but I am sure they don’t make money.

Apple wanted to upend the market and offer some sort of global subscription with content from all over at a fair price. Great. Bring it. But the content guys don’t want that cause they sold the rights a zillion different ways and until all the rights are reset and the system capitulates nothing will happen. Apple will probably keep trying but I bet it takes years.

What I don’t get is why Apple is trying to do this stuff when there is a ton of things they are not doing to make it easier to build a better OTT system on their platform. Apple is trying to be everything these days while at the same time they are not building or shipping the best tools for those who focus on OTT to build the best product. At this point Google has pulled ahead in this platform game in my opinion.

Google:

– Cheapest device to get content on the big screen – Chromecast
– Allows the app developer to implement multiple payment options – not just Google Pay
– Is shipping a basically free DRM platform that works well across chrome, android and chromecast. Plus it includes download as a core feature

Apple:

– Apple TV is pricey and still buggy as hell
– Apple only allows Apple payments and only credit cards. Emerging markets totally missed
– Shipping a DRM system that works well enough across Apple ecosystem but reserves the use of download only for Apple. Pathetic!

I have faults with both these guys in general:

    Tons of pirate apps in the stores
    Still taking 30% for content subscriptions when they know the margins don’t support it
    Unfairly using DRM to control the ecosystems

OTT biz is hard but these guys could do a lot more to help create the best platform versus trying to be the end user product.

Have fun dodging the VPN blocks!

Thoughts on OTT

~ michael_msft ~ 6 Comments

Update to the post::

I said as much in my list below – get ready for the VPN to stop working when it comes to gaming Netflix content libraries.

First, let me start off with a shameless plug for a podcast I was a guest of:

Now that we got that out of the way we can continue on. Also – my shameless plus is so we make this AA’s #1 podcast to ensure I get invited back. 😉

Let me disclose that I work at hooq.tv and used to work at spuul.com . I do have some sense of this world I am talking about. I don’t have a crystal ball and I also think that in the emerging markets it will take years to declare a winner. Years I say!

That being said I think it is important to note some things for the pedestrians:

    – In many markets, say Taxis or car booking services, I can agree with the winner take all or winner take most, especially in the USA or China. FYI Om covered this topic well here :: http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/in-silicon-valley-now-its-almost-always-winner-takes-all. However in large regional area or emerging markets I am not sure if it is true and it also has to be that pricing almost equalizes. In the case of this specific subject if we are talking about Netflix dominating in India I struggle to see how a company that charges 3x its emerging markets brethren can own the market. Maybe it will own the high end but how would it own the market that does not pay that much for entertainment?

    – Let no one kid you. None of these players are currently fighting over a paid customer base – we are all fighting to convert a pirate over to a paying subscriber. That will take years and there are plenty of pirates to share at this moment.

    – Local content is a big deal and no one player owns it all nor can sell it all to one OTT player. Also many of the local content players are building or have built their own OTT services.

    – There can never be just one service for all. Take me for example. I share my mom’s Netflix account but I buy my own HBO account. I value HBO way more than Netflix and nothing they did last week changed that equation for me.

    – Payment models in the emerging markets are hard. For Netflix it very well could be that the only customer they care about has a credit card. That still lives 100’s of millions of customers for companies like HOOQ who think there are others way to take money from users.

    – Not only are payment models hard but so are subscription types. Is a monthly recurring subscription going to work in the emerging markets? For some folks it might. For others maybe weekly subscriptions is better? Maybe a subscription tied to a data balance makes more sense. No one knows yet.

    – Content rights are super hard. I love seeing all the people baffled as to why they log into Netflix Singapore and it doesn’t look like the USA catalog. Netflix didn’t buy all the rights for Singapore because they know it is a small market. It may not be worth it and chances are some of it is not available. Also, Netflix being a capitalist, sold some of their shows to services in Singapore already so they can’t just take it back. Over time as they grow they will fix this but again Netflix could never own everything you want to see.

    – As OTT takes off some of the big players will try to work around Netflix and other services to go direct. One good read on this :: http://bgr.com/2015/11/05/netflix-streaming-time-warner/

    – The all powerful VPN. Currently lots of folks are signing up for Netflix Singapore and then using a VPN or anonymous IP to get the USA catalog. All good but keep in mind they way content rights work. They are bought and sold for a region – they are not tied to what credit card you use. Lots of folks talk about Apple TV or iTunes as the model where I can use my use a credit card to buy a show. And I can watch it in Singapore but note I am paying US prices so the content guys don’t care. Apple is not a subscription service and notice it they planned on doing this with TV and backed down. Netflix is getting away with murder right now. Pay Singapore prices but watch a USA catalog. At some point the content owners may ask Netflix to enforce geo specific rule or to simply not support VPN usage. Most content owners ask companies like HOOQ to try to block VPN’s or similar tools. As global content streaming takes off, I expect this to be an ongoing discussion.

    – To summarize I would like to say this is going to take time to all play out. As I like to remind my team regularly – it’s a marathon – not a sprint.

I’ll add to this is if I think I missed something.

Lyft

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

Was reading this about Lyft – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/leaked-lyft-financials-show-the-struggles-of-being-no-2-behind-uber.

Not such a great business it seems but a quick takeaway for me is how the hell do they compete with Uber when they don’t have a big international footprint?

This was also news to me:

Andreessen Horowitz is currently Lyft’s largest shareholder, according to one of the documents obtained by Bloomberg. The venture capital firm holds 12 percent of shares. Bloomberg LP is an investor in Andreessen Horowitz. Japanese e-commerce company Rakuten owns 10 percent of Lyft shares, and the Mayfield Fund owns 6.6 percent.

What the hell is Rakuten doing?

VOD – here come Asia!

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

We all know VOD is big. Just check Netflix for reference. I pretty much never watch actual TV or cable – except for the news.

Normally I am watching HOOQ, HBO Now, or Netflix. Plus a lot of iTunes video.

Given all that it is no wonder that global VOD growth is gonna keep growing.

What is exciting is the Asia numbers:

The VOD market in Asia Pacific Excluding Japan (APEJ) is expanding at a robust pace and by 2020, the market is expected to reach $80.5 billion.

How do you like them apples?

Good times.