Teflon Thailand

Linked to this yesterday :: https://seedvc.blog/2019/04/01/thai-election-gives-businesses-incentive-to-invest-abroad-bloomberg/

This is another good one :: https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Teflon-Thailand-feels-the-heat

As stated yesterday – Thailand is underperforming and it could soon affect all aspects of Thailand.

This is the most alarming stuff:

Domestic strains abound, too. Household debt is, officially, an alarming 78% of gross domestic product. Officially, because this figure only reflects money owed to financial institutions. It does not account for a sprawling “gray economy” awash in curb-side lending that often comes with extortionate interest rates. Indonesia’s ratio, by comparison, is about 17%. In South Korea, a byword for household debt, it is 100%, but Korea is a much richer and more developed country.

As of August, roughly a quarter of households had trouble making repayments on car loans, credit-card debt and in other areas. This ranks among the most obvious barriers to Thailand raising GDP growth rates to the 5%-6% needed to reach middle-income status. Domestic consumption drives more than 50% of GDP. The more debt households take on, the greater the drag on growth.

Another problem the junta has not addressed: a demographic clock that is speeding up. Last month, the Bank of Thailand warned its “aging society” could be one of the first developing nations with an over-65 population of 14% or more by 2022.

As long as I have been in Asia Thailand has had and largely acted like Teflon.

It may not last folks.

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