Transactional Angst

I think nary a week goes by where someone doesn’t ask me how VC is going and when am I going back. I guess back means to return to building something, joining a company or working on a product.

It’s normally something that requires a longer answer but usually I say ask me in 10 years. That’s cause it will probably take me that long to see if I am any good at this VC thing. 

That being said I think people ask this due to the very nature of VC being somewhat transactional and maybe building something is more of a co-op approach since there are teams involved all working together to ship. It is a sentiment I think about a lot.

Saw this tweet the other day and was thinking about it even more:

https://twitter.com/joshelman/status/1109497183445803008

However I always consider that there may be a better way but I am not saying I discovered it but highlighting that each and every craftsman in the world can approach their craft with a new frame of mind. With VC I think about what that means often. 

Let me run down a few areas I think as a VC I can be more like the product person still living inside me:

  • Be open and transparent. Of course not everyone reacts well to this but I find a certain amount of it works
  • Be humble 
  • Be helpful
  • Have empathy for the founder and the other people/organizations in the mix
  • Try to write often enough so people can see what’s on my mind and how I feel about something
  • Continue to focus on doing the right thing – it may not payoff immediately but I believe it will win in the end
  • Learn to listen more – speak less. I am terrible at this but I am very conscious of improving it. That’s a start right? 😉
  • Foster an ecosystem since everyone will benefit (https://alpha.seedplus.com)
  • Be company friendly. This is a long one to explain but I think the right folks now what I mean

I don’t intend to go back as some people call it since I think I moved forward while still getting better at my craft. I see my craft as helping build great companies by being their investor and whatever else they need me to be while I am in that role. 

Pretty sure that is similar to what I did as a product person but I am not an employee or a founder.

However the North Star feels similar to me.

Your mileage may vary.

Walmart International spent $16 billion to go big in India. CEO Judith McKenna has to make it work – CNN

Walmart International spent $16 billion to go big in India. CEO Judith McKenna has to make it work – CNN

Was talking to a friend about India and VC – one thing we all agree on is that the monster exit of Flipkart has done wonders for the scene. Lots of people made money and it is going to new firms and new startups which helps to compete with the old guard. More foreign funds will pay attention now knowing exits can and will happen.

However – making investors, founders and employees rich has nothing to do with Walmart turning Flipkart into a money machine.

On this part -I think they will struggle long-term against Amazon.

Get the popcorn.

(My take) Grab vs. Go-Jek: Inside Asia’s Battle of the ‘Super Apps’ | Fortune

Grab vs. Go-Jek: Inside Asia’s Battle of the ‘Super Apps’ | Fortune

Much to talk about with this subject. I don’t know where to begin. Let me first state that what’s happening in the SEAsian ecosystem is amazing and of course these 2 players are a massive part of that. I won’t knock that but I also still feel inclined to talk about how I feel about it or how my product head reacts to it.

First off:

With a 2017 GDP of $2.8 trillion, Southeast Asia, were it a single country, would be the world’s seventh largest economy; at its current growth rate, it would rank No. 4 by 2030. But for investors, market size is only part of the appeal. Super-apps promise a new mode of connecting with customers and an opportunity to amass a vast data trove about their preferences and purchasing behavior. It’s a model pioneered in China by Alibaba’s Alipay and Tencent’s WeChat; Mark Zuckerberg, in a recent blog post, hinted that he hopes Facebook can emulate it. Many believe revenue from super-app services and the data they generate will prove to be more stable, more profitable, and easier to scale than revenues from ride-hailing—where profits have been elusive even as growth skyrockets.

I am incredibly lucky to be doing what I am doing at a time like this. SEAsia has many more laps to go for the “race”. Most of the big companies will tell you that the bulk of the business right now is in the tier 1 and 2 cities and heavily slanted to tier 1. Imagine how big some of these businesses are when tier 2 and beyond start to kick in – and eventually they will.

The other thing to take note of is that for Google and Facebook, SEAsian revenue is already massive but yet ARPU is some 25% of what they see elsewhere which means the revenue will only get bigger. Couple ARPU growth with more users out of tier 2 cities and beyond and basically you haven’t seen the how big it will go.

Let’s discuss G and G more. First off I challenge the premise of the super-app. I am quite vocal in my view on this, super-apps work in China because of China. The density, the lock-in by the Chinese giants and the government aiding the growth of the Chinese giants has to be taken into account. None of of those traits are in SEAsia apart from the density but even the density is not quite the same. To constantly keep thinking that the super-app is what users want will eventually backfire on them since the rest of the traits are not here – users have choice.

I for one pretty much hate the super app concept. I am so sick of the steps I need to take to book a ride for example with Grab. I have to play wack-a-popup with promos and getting through stuff I don’t want or need to simply book a ride. Due to this I use Comfort and Gojek more. That’s Grab’s fault though – they could provide me with a better experience. They could simply let me set a preference that instructs the app to default to the ride screen for example. I know they won’t but they could. What’s interesting is with Gojek offering rides only in Singapore, then I only deal with that UX. I love it but my guess is Gojek will eventually ruin this for me in Singapore as well. 

I had a conversation once over Twitter with a VC from the USA who is funding Grab and I realised he has no sense of what I am talking about since he has never really used the app. They simply apply the China lens around super-apps to SEAsia and assume it will work. It may, I don’t know yet but I think unbundled apps are much better for users. This is actually where I would like to add that neither of these companies is answering the siren call of user needs, they are just shoving down our throats the UX we think we all want. I tend to vote with my behaviours. I don’t use anything from Grab but rides.

The other day I was in the situation of needing to use GrabPay to pay for lunch and when I clicked on it I was sent through some verification loop and was never able to add any money to my wallet. Keep in mind my wallet worked before and I had a credit card attached to it – seems all that was gone and I was starting over. Just silly. Why would I even bother – since NETS and ApplePay work well and once setup I never even think about them. These apps continually test user patience with experimentation, bad UX and constantly forcing users to start over. It is ridiculous.

I used cash BTW – it sill works for now.

I have problems with Gojek as well but of a different nature. First off the tech is just way behind Grab’s. This has gotten more apparent as I use both in Singapore. The other day I booked a Gojek ride and noticed the car driving away from me and getting farther away. I tried to message, a pain cause there is no in-app chat – but the driver did not reply. Then the car stopped and wasn’t even moving. I called the driver and he said he was picking up Jan or something at an apartment. Essentially the app was matching me to a car that wasn’t picking me up. The driver was annoyed, I was annoyed and then I had to cancel and start over – with Comfort. 

There is a litany of tech issues – no expense management, no ability to use credit cards across other regions and the app just feeling slow. It sucks – I had high hopes but I think if this is a race then Grab is winning for sure. That’s obvious.

My biggest gripe with Grab though is their origin. They started as a taxi company which is fine but it is what they inherited with that origin story. Taxi companies are notorious for terrible customer service – probably to riders and drivers alike. I only know the customer vantage point which is one with normally bad customer service and I have numerous experiences myself. No point in going into it since it is what it is. 

I think the larger question though is ride hailing profitable? My guess is that it is not which is why these two players are going into everything and calling it a super-app. Only time will tell since autonomous vehicles, government run transport and the remaking of cities will radically alter the ride hailing playbooks. As the companies look to other products they will either be able to use ride hailing to entice users into their other products or they will need to unbundle and compete with other, better products. Again, it is too early to tell and investors are pouring money into G & G hoping that the super-app is the model with one of these guys owning the region.

I am not so sure it will work.

Elizabeth Warren Wants To Break Up Amazon, Google And Facebook; But Does Her Plan Make Any Sense? | Techdirt

The whole thing is a good read. I don’t have the answers but I think competing with these big companies gets harder and harder with each passing year. That’s a problem – maybe breaking them up would help but I think the process to do so is too convoluted and costly.

I think fighting anti-competitive behaviour has to be the first line of attack and even on the record America isn’t doing well at all.

Elizabeth Warren Wants To Break Up Amazon, Google And Facebook; But Does Her Plan Make Any Sense? | Techdirt:

And, again, none of this is to say we shouldn’t be concerned about big internet companies with too much power. It’s a perfectly reasonable concern, but just because you want to “do something” and “this is something,” doesn’t mean that it’s the something we should do. The way to attack the positions of these big internet companies is to enable more competition — and you do that by encouraging alternatives in the marketplace. This is why I’m actually hopeful that some of these companies will actually start to explore an idea of moving to protocols, rather than owning the whole platform themselves, or that we’ll see new protocols springing up.

Meanwhile, if Warren were truly concerned about “monopolies” and a lack of competition, why isn’t her plan looking at the lack of competition in the broadband and mobile markets — cases where we have legitimate competition problems due to bad regulatory policies going back decades?

The Seed Slump – AVC

This is a good post pointing to a few of the other threads and posts talking about the Seed Slump.

The Seed Slump – AVC

I think this tweet is good as well:

These are the takeaways:

  • seed to A graduation % obviously will go down
  • seed funds which stay small & generate smallcap exits can make

State of the Cloud 2019 · Bessemer Venture Partners

State of the Cloud 2019 · Bessemer Venture Partners:

Operate with G.R.I.T.

Operational rigor is what separates early stage companies from the most influential cloud leaders. But take comfort in the fact that it’s possible: Twilio’s Jeff Lawson and Shopify’s Tobias Lütke are just two examples of the many first-time founders who were running cloud businesses during and post-recession.

At Bessemer, we recommend cloud founders operate on G.R.I.T.— a critical set of metrics that resilient, enduring cloud companies use as yardsticks of success.

This is pretty good read but it may not be apparent what G.R.I.T. is :

G = Growth

R = Retention

I = Money in the Bank

T = Targeted Spend