Category: Tech

Let the bloodbath begin!

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

Banged this out yesterday – http://www.nokpis.com/2016/04/18/the-actual-state-of-ott-in-emerging-markets/

The idea being that the expansion of OTT across the planet will be a full scale war and that it won’t simply be handed over to Netflix on a silver platter.

Now we have Netflix with the okay quarter but with a shady forecast: http://techcrunch.com/2016/04/18/netflix-posts-a-mixed-q1-but-adds-6-74m-new-subscribers/

Don’t get me wrong here. Netflix is huge and growing but the cost of building out tech and a library for the globe won’t be cheap. They are also losing paid subscribers who can no longer VPN to get the good content. I am in Singapore and the size of the library sucks here. I can’t even get the latest season of many of the Netflix shows. Thankfully I still use my mom’s account so not like I am sweating the subscription.

However on top of dealing with all the regional players, Netflix has to now contend with Amazon.

http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/04/amazon-starts-offering-prime-video-as-a-8-99-monthly-subscription/

I always assumed Amazon would do this at some point but didn’t expect it this soon. To be frank I had Prime for a bit so I could play with the video service but didn’t keep it due to not having enough content. With the service now being split out I may try it again but I have always found their tech and apps to suck in comparison to HBO and Netflix. Amazon always does just enough to get by versus build the best app ever. It shows with their video apps but maybe this breakout will force them to compete more. Time will tell.

One thing we do know is video is growing like mad – even in Asia. http://variety.com/2016/digital/asia/online-video-further-growth-in-asia-report-1201755475/

I think the market will split off into a few groups and that there will never be one dominant player for the globe or for the Asian regions.

But who the hell knows.

My day with Ratan Tata

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

I’ll start with this write up from TIA.

A day with Ratan Tata//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js

Yesterday, Jungle Ventures, hosted a morning with Ratan Tata and the founders of their portfolio companies – then later in the day an event with their LP’s.

I was allowed to tag along and spend some time hanging with the crew.

This is the second time in my life I have met him but this time I was offered a whole day and a chance to speak with him directly for a bit while we had lunch.

First off, I am just stunned by how humble he was and extremely gracious with his time and thoughts.

The article highlighted his frequent response of “I don’t know”, but it was usually his response to an unclear or unconcise question. Or a question he just didn’t have an answer to.

That being said he always had advice or thoughts but just did not always give a specific answer. He was more into the theory or lesson to be learned in discovering your own answer and any advice he could offer to enhance your discovery.

I could go on and on with what I learned and the stories around Nano, Land Rover, Jaguar, and just running a huge org were priceless.

I was further stunned to catch him in the lobby, alone, carrying his hotel reciept after checking himself out. 

Just a man of the people. Which is sometimes hard to grasp given his stature.

It further cements his advice about ethics, empathy and solving real problems of the world.

I am still in awe.

Google copied my playbook ;)

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

It’s funny how much a lead Yahoo threw away. First there is the global rise of messaging as a platform – remember Yahoo messenger?

Then there is the need to chase the emerging markets opportunity but rather than do it from Silicon Valley – you place the problem with people from the market.

Now google goes and acquires Pie.co to help them with emerging markets software talent. Great move.

Amazes me at times to see how bad Yahoo is blowing it and how they had so many of the pieces needed to compete.

Oh well…

Of course Apple’s so called streaming service is a no-show

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

Not a very thorough article but jogged my memory some :: http://www.techinsider.io/apple-streaming-tv-service-delayed-2016-2

I think people don’t realize that the launch of Netflix global is going to set everything back a bit before things can move forward. I love watching all the haters coming out and bashing the OTT companies over content or VPN issues. Folks – you are bashing the wrong crew. It’s the content owners to bitch at – not the streamers.

The world of content rights is such a mess it’s not even funny. Just look at all the audio guys – even Pandora can’t make money. The only guys making money in streaming audio are the owners of the rights and the infrastructure guys. Not the artists or the streaming companies. Spotify is huge but I am sure they don’t make money.

Apple wanted to upend the market and offer some sort of global subscription with content from all over at a fair price. Great. Bring it. But the content guys don’t want that cause they sold the rights a zillion different ways and until all the rights are reset and the system capitulates nothing will happen. Apple will probably keep trying but I bet it takes years.

What I don’t get is why Apple is trying to do this stuff when there is a ton of things they are not doing to make it easier to build a better OTT system on their platform. Apple is trying to be everything these days while at the same time they are not building or shipping the best tools for those who focus on OTT to build the best product. At this point Google has pulled ahead in this platform game in my opinion.

Google:

– Cheapest device to get content on the big screen – Chromecast
– Allows the app developer to implement multiple payment options – not just Google Pay
– Is shipping a basically free DRM platform that works well across chrome, android and chromecast. Plus it includes download as a core feature

Apple:

– Apple TV is pricey and still buggy as hell
– Apple only allows Apple payments and only credit cards. Emerging markets totally missed
– Shipping a DRM system that works well enough across Apple ecosystem but reserves the use of download only for Apple. Pathetic!

I have faults with both these guys in general:

    Tons of pirate apps in the stores
    Still taking 30% for content subscriptions when they know the margins don’t support it
    Unfairly using DRM to control the ecosystems

OTT biz is hard but these guys could do a lot more to help create the best platform versus trying to be the end user product.

Have fun dodging the VPN blocks!

Thoughts on OTT

~ michael_msft ~ 6 Comments

Update to the post::

I said as much in my list below – get ready for the VPN to stop working when it comes to gaming Netflix content libraries.

First, let me start off with a shameless plug for a podcast I was a guest of:

Now that we got that out of the way we can continue on. Also – my shameless plus is so we make this AA’s #1 podcast to ensure I get invited back. 😉

Let me disclose that I work at hooq.tv and used to work at spuul.com . I do have some sense of this world I am talking about. I don’t have a crystal ball and I also think that in the emerging markets it will take years to declare a winner. Years I say!

That being said I think it is important to note some things for the pedestrians:

    – In many markets, say Taxis or car booking services, I can agree with the winner take all or winner take most, especially in the USA or China. FYI Om covered this topic well here :: http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/in-silicon-valley-now-its-almost-always-winner-takes-all. However in large regional area or emerging markets I am not sure if it is true and it also has to be that pricing almost equalizes. In the case of this specific subject if we are talking about Netflix dominating in India I struggle to see how a company that charges 3x its emerging markets brethren can own the market. Maybe it will own the high end but how would it own the market that does not pay that much for entertainment?

    – Let no one kid you. None of these players are currently fighting over a paid customer base – we are all fighting to convert a pirate over to a paying subscriber. That will take years and there are plenty of pirates to share at this moment.

    – Local content is a big deal and no one player owns it all nor can sell it all to one OTT player. Also many of the local content players are building or have built their own OTT services.

    – There can never be just one service for all. Take me for example. I share my mom’s Netflix account but I buy my own HBO account. I value HBO way more than Netflix and nothing they did last week changed that equation for me.

    – Payment models in the emerging markets are hard. For Netflix it very well could be that the only customer they care about has a credit card. That still lives 100’s of millions of customers for companies like HOOQ who think there are others way to take money from users.

    – Not only are payment models hard but so are subscription types. Is a monthly recurring subscription going to work in the emerging markets? For some folks it might. For others maybe weekly subscriptions is better? Maybe a subscription tied to a data balance makes more sense. No one knows yet.

    – Content rights are super hard. I love seeing all the people baffled as to why they log into Netflix Singapore and it doesn’t look like the USA catalog. Netflix didn’t buy all the rights for Singapore because they know it is a small market. It may not be worth it and chances are some of it is not available. Also, Netflix being a capitalist, sold some of their shows to services in Singapore already so they can’t just take it back. Over time as they grow they will fix this but again Netflix could never own everything you want to see.

    – As OTT takes off some of the big players will try to work around Netflix and other services to go direct. One good read on this :: http://bgr.com/2015/11/05/netflix-streaming-time-warner/

    – The all powerful VPN. Currently lots of folks are signing up for Netflix Singapore and then using a VPN or anonymous IP to get the USA catalog. All good but keep in mind they way content rights work. They are bought and sold for a region – they are not tied to what credit card you use. Lots of folks talk about Apple TV or iTunes as the model where I can use my use a credit card to buy a show. And I can watch it in Singapore but note I am paying US prices so the content guys don’t care. Apple is not a subscription service and notice it they planned on doing this with TV and backed down. Netflix is getting away with murder right now. Pay Singapore prices but watch a USA catalog. At some point the content owners may ask Netflix to enforce geo specific rule or to simply not support VPN usage. Most content owners ask companies like HOOQ to try to block VPN’s or similar tools. As global content streaming takes off, I expect this to be an ongoing discussion.

    – To summarize I would like to say this is going to take time to all play out. As I like to remind my team regularly – it’s a marathon – not a sprint.

I’ll add to this is if I think I missed something.

Whither Android…

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

I haven’t seen much mainstream coverage of this move. We all know Google battled hard to do a non Oracle Java but seems that didn’t work out. Legally I always thought Google was wrong but of course I am not a fan of Oracle and the way they steward Java.

Read this about the latest on Oracle and Android.

If you thought overall Android performance sucks now, I think it does, it sure won’t get any better with issues like this : Google has of course its own Android UI framework. Swing will now sit on every Android phone, using up resources.

I don’t know if this is the final word on the subject or if Google has other ideas but I sure do appreciate Apple’s native stack designed from the ground up for mobile.

I won’t argue the point that Android is huge but this isn’t a good sign of where it is heading.

If anyone has some good opposing links or counters please chime in using the comments.

I was hoping Tim Bray had covered it but not yet.

VOD – here come Asia!

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

We all know VOD is big. Just check Netflix for reference. I pretty much never watch actual TV or cable – except for the news.

Normally I am watching HOOQ, HBO Now, or Netflix. Plus a lot of iTunes video.

Given all that it is no wonder that global VOD growth is gonna keep growing.

What is exciting is the Asia numbers:

The VOD market in Asia Pacific Excluding Japan (APEJ) is expanding at a robust pace and by 2020, the market is expected to reach $80.5 billion.

How do you like them apples?

Good times.

Grinding it out

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

Day to day product stuff can be a real grind. Sweating out the details to eak some performance out by a mere fraction of a second, dealing with a partner who can’t code their way out of wet paper bag and pouring over printed contracts trying to make sure we don’t get screwed. You know, the fun stuff that no one ever sees but that make a world of a difference.

Given all that work this is one of those weeks that HOOQ can bask in the glory a bit…

Although the local trade rags don’t talk about us much, I think we raised too much money or something, the FT, my fav paper, mentioned us :: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fb11e7b6-7df4-11e5-98fb-5a6d4728f74e.html

There is much to talk about the OTT wars. I am working on building my second one and as I always tell people it is a marathon, not a sprint. User signups for example don’t mean much when it comes to “revenue”, but all that being said – there are a few of us out to get the prize. One could even argue what the prize is but for me it is to build a real revenue business in streaming content to people in the emerging markets. It’s a tough problem.

I will speaking about it here :: http://www.ap.idc.asia/events/view/agenda/?event_id=612&loc_id=1151

I always mention how bizdev is a tricky beast for a startup – I have written about that before :: http://www.nokpis.com/2014/07/10/fear-bizdev/

Even with HOOQ I have been wary of BD due to the work it creates. For the last few months we have been grinding on this :: http://www.snapdeal.com/product/google-chromecast-hdmi-streaming-media/1709999463?offer_id=17&aff_id=14723&utm_source=aff_prog&utm_campaign=afts

How do you like them Apples?

BizDev is tough – be wary.

That being said we worked hard on shipping chromecast. It has been well received by our users.

Today we added one more thing – native chrome browser support for HTML 5 video. For the nerds – this is hard stuff that most common users can’t appreciate. Having to do secure video at scale with HTML 5 isn’t easy. We will fix the other browsers as soon as we can.

#productLife

More thoughts on transpo!

~ michael_msft ~ Leave a comment

What we all really want is this right?

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mathonan/googles-cute-cars-and-the-ugly-end-of-driving#.lc7Vy8RkM

Open an app, summon a car, go to my spot, get out and get billed. No driver in the car so we can carry on a normal family or private conversation. I don’t have to argue about the route, worry about traffic or smell a driver’s nasty foot odor. Yes – that happened the other day on Uber X. Won the lottery of getting a fancy weekend Uber X car but paid for it with a punishing smell of rotting old man feet.

Robotic fleet of cars is the answer to a lot of what ails a city. Bring it.

Lit up my stats the other day with this tweet – even garnered a few retweets from the pros.

But damn if I didn’t speak to soon.

Usually when I am in an Uber or Grab I quiz the drivers. I like to hear their stories, how they use the system and what they are getting paid. Like the last time I was in LA the driver picked me up in an Uber X and then based on when he thought he would drop me was logging into his Lyft app to hopefully bag a ride near my drop off point. Love how this economic model influences behaviours.

I noticed about a week ago I couldn’t get an Uber X in the morning – right around 6:50 is when I order one. But funny thing is I noticed some Grab cars lurking around me. So today there were no Uber X cars but yet my first pull on the Grab app netted me a ride on GrabCar. Lo and behold, yeah I remember every driver, I noticed a car that has picked me up before and the driver with his new blonde hair. Of course I dig in to learn that Uber has rules about appearance and on top of that he said the new 60 hour – 100 ride system is paying less than Grab unless you hit the kickers. So his calculated per hour rate is now down and he isn’t logging into Uber X anymore, thus he was available for a GrabCar ride. Hence I can get a Grab now but not an Uber.

Not sure this move is working out too well for Uber since outside of the city central I see less cars now but I will add when I see them I get one. Unlike the Grab system, where they inflate the cars around you and you don’t always get one.

Also many of the Uber X drivers I know on using the cars rented via the Uber system – wonder how this messes with that system?

Where will this end? My guess is both companies are bleeding money and if so this is a funding game to some extent. Good times.

Grab’s problem versus Uber

~ michael_msft ~ 11 Comments

I get in arguments constantly that I am an Uber lover and a Grab hater but most people won’t stop long enough to listen to my stance on it. I will say that after meeting an hearing Sacca I am even a bigger fan but I guess I was just super impressed with Sacca.

First off let me add that as Grab is a local I am constantly baffled and why they are not more local? They took forever to add credit cards, they have no loyalty program (huge mistake), and in places like Singapore their mapping and lack of using zip codes is comical.

On top of all of this the apps just suck – let me get detailed here:

– I will book a taxi. It is on the way. The app will crash. It re opens and it goes back to book a taxi mode. I have one on the way. Of course now I can’t contact the taxi because it shows I don’t have a taxi.

– This happened to me a number of times in Bangkok and since I couldn’t contact the taxi and they couldn’t find me they would cancel on me. I wouldn’t know this since the app thinks I don’t have a booking anyway.

– Other times I would re book only to find I would have two taxis coming. How would a system let me book two taxis? On top of this customer service would call me to inquire why I booked two cabs.

– Other issues like the timing mechanisms are totally broken and the app is just overly complicated.

However let me get to what I think is the core crux of why I don’t like Grab. It fails on the instant gratification scale that Uber absolutely nails. For example this is what I saw this morning when trying to get a GrabCar:

Untitled//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js

To myself or my wife this would make it look like we have a chance of getting a car.

Wait for it – this is what almost always happens though:

Untitled//embedr.flickr.com/assets/client-code.js

And happens and happens and almost always happens.

Why doesn’t it retry till I get a car?

Why does it show me there are cars around me but yet none accept the fare?

This is the part of Grab that lulls me into thinking it is just a booking app – like all other booking apps. Whereas Uber is an Instant Transportation Service living within my phone. If there are no cars available then it shows me that there are no cars. And practically every time it shows cars are available I am able to book one. Otherwise it shows no cars available. Or if really busy you see surge pricing.

I will take a surge price over hitting retry on Grab 100 times. Why? Instant gratification. I know I can book a car. With Grab. It is spray and pray.

There are those saying that Grab will just keep raising enough money to win. I think winning might be beating other regional players – Rocket already packed their bags. However Uber will win the ultimate battle due to the difference in how the core of their service works.

Grab could fix this but they don’t seem to be since the apps are as bad a they have ever been.