radical candour from a deep generalist
Been reading Good To Great and this just really jumped out at me. Startups will also have some sort of a lost battle or big failure but what’s important is being able to carry out an autopsy without laying blame so that the entire company can benefit from the post mortem.
I won’t lie – I dig this dude. I don’t agree with all of it but most of it.
Some highlights to track:
All in all another good video from Scott.
One last push here before we lock in the topic for the first Session.
As some of you may know I am a partner at SeedPlus :: http://www.seedplus.com/.
We have been kind of quiet lately but it is the new year and time to ratchet up our outreach.
First event we have planned is for Feb and it will be a seminar series about Growth. Lots of definitions for this and lots of snake oil in the system but we plan on getting into the science of growth.
Please take our survey :: http://www.seedplus.com/sessions/ and then stay tuned for an announcement on the crowdsourced topic plus event details.
Let the Sessions begin…
Read this post recently :: http://www.businessinsider.sg/patrick-grove-7-predictions-southeast-asias-tech-scene-2017/
I like Patrick and we chat occasionaly so this is not a bashing post but just thinking about his predictions and my opinions on them.
1. Southeast Asia becomes a bigger internet market than America
I think if we are talking raw numbers then I guess so but when it comes to money spent and ease of payments I still think America is a bigger prize for an internet company but depends on the product. But yes, SEA is big and getting bigger. Fund place to be.
2. Funding will be harder to get (so conserve what you have)
I do not think I agree. I think funding is always hard but there is plenty of capital right now. What has changed to me is that the easy money may be coming to end and people who fund things wants to see real products, traction and ideas that can turn into real businesses. So the powerpoint insta startup days that get money before customers is probably over.
3. At least three companies will raise 9 figure rounds (USD100 million+)
I am guessing Patrick is speaking from first hand knowledge here and I think he may be right. Regardless the region will see more B,C, and D rounds which means bigger and bigger checks.
4. There will be another exit in excess of USD500 million
Agree. I think M&A activity will grow and possible an IPO here or there. That will be something to watch – Garena may be the first. Let’s all hope whoever gets out of the IPO gate does well since that will set the tone for everyone else.
5. The Year of China
Probably true but I think it not the same ways some imagine. I think China will continue to fund things, buy things, and be at the forefront of startup activity but I am not a beleiver that Chinese products will be able to get big outside of China. To be clear there are some Chinese companies such as MeiPai that have quietly built the world’s selfie and camera apps. Most users do not know it is Chinese and don’t care. In fact I think that strategy is devised by them but on the flipside if somone asks me will Alibaba win ecommerce in SEA or Amazon and I will tell you it is Amazon. Why? They just have a better stack and will appeal to more of the region’s sensibilities than Alibaba will. I will also add that I will vote for Amazon on the idea that until China opens up its markets to everyone for competition that I will choose the non-Chinese product. Going to be an epic battle for sure and good for the consumer.
6. There will be a widespread embrace of Fintech
In theory this should be true but I think the space is harder than people want to admit to. Banks are not wanting to be disrupted and they hold tremendous power. Regulations are not easy and many companies need to get regulatory approval prior to getting customers. On top of this any sort of regionality for most fintech products is quite difficult. In general I am bullish that there are lots of finance problems to solve but executing is harder than most people think.
7. Every week, a different startup will run out of money
Probably true. Why? Go back to number 2. Most startups should not have gotten the money in the first place and will have a hard time raising the money to keep going. Also many startups are realizing they don’t have a business or real revenue. These will fail. It’s okay. This happens. It will be a nice cycle of housecleaning and will mean real startups can pick up the pieces, distressed assets and grab employees. All good.
Update – This link is interesting and painful :: http://www.politico.com/media/story/2017/01/medium-pivot-catches-publishing-partners-by-surprise-004907
Read this today :: http://daringfireball.net/linked/2017/01/04/williams-medium
Have this conversation going on facebook :: https://www.facebook.com/stuartmcdonald007/posts/10154007252602062
Here is the investor and fan weighing in :: https://500ish.com/long-medium-b9ddfe2c3a0a#.dnwmbtx85
There is a section in today’s Reliable Sources about the Medium stuff as well :: http://us11.campaign-archive1.com/?u=47c9040f6ff957a59bd88396e&id=ac7d0f9073&e=0e78a818f4
I am sure there is lots of other chatter about this topic today. Medium is kind of an internet darling and a big layoff like this is a big deal. I personally think Medium got a little to big for what they are trying to do and this seems to confirm that.
I have tried it a few times and it is slick. But I did not find that my audience went up any in using it versus using my own blog and my normal channels for promoting it. I am guessing over time if my articles where chosen or highlighted I would see a pop but guessing it wouldn’t happen much.
I have always felt I should have my own stack so to speak. Normally this has been self hosted wordpress blog but recently with my domain name change I decided to try wordpress hosting since it is cheaper, I get SSL and so far everything just works. Given it is wordpress I feel it is easy to move it around and keep everything intact. In fact moving everything to the new domain took an hour or so – even importing all the posts and comments. Only thing I couldn’t get to import right was stats but it is a new year so what the hell. I know my high watermark anyway.
My needs are different from others though who poetntially want to derive their income from writing. I have no such goals. I just want to write and interact. If I did need to make money from it I am not sure that running a blog would work regardless. Very few are able to live off it and most have to do lots of shitty ads or promotional things to make it work. I do link to Amazon stuff but I don’t expect it net me much – I figure it just makes it easier for readers to order a book or see what I am referring to. I do see what Medium is trying to do and I can see why some want Medium to create a platform that might generate revenue.
However I am not clear how Medium will do it or if it will work.
I like Ev. I respect him the most out of the twitter crew and wish he had stayed to make twitter happen but oh well. Let’s hope Medium figures it out but wondering if the whole notion of making this a big venture backed thing is working for them.
Time will tell.
Heard about this on a podcast and had a few folks share it with me as well.
http://www.ramenprofitable.co/what-do-elite-venture-investors-read-every-morning/
Not sure I buy into the whole elite thing but still a good list of stuff to read regardless.
Been reading the new book :: Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap and Others Don’t – super interesting.
One of the things I find fascinating is the discussion around the traits of those who have built great companies and pretty much in all cases Ego is not on the list or the wanting to be known as the person running the company versus letting the results speak.
So I am listening to this Gimlet startup podcast about the founder of American Apparel. This is part 4 but all of it been pretty good and best to listen to them all :: https://overcast.fm/+DHBqvB8A4 . So Dove has started three t-shirt companies at this point. First two went bankrupt whether he claims to be the one who caused it or not.
Now he is working on this third :: http://www.businessinsider.sg/american-apparel-founder-dov-charney-is-back-thats-los-angeles-2016-9/
The lines I am trying to draw is although this guy has been able to build a big business from scratch, they always fail – usually going bankrupt. When you listen to him speak on the podcast he has some amazing ideas and is also trying to local manufacturing. Dig it.
But when you listen closely to him during some of the conversations he will discuss how even when American Apparel was cranking he was upset that people did not know that he was behind it.
Boom. Ego. His desire to have a name seems to always interfere and lead to his downfall.
Silly.
Wonder what happens this time. 3rd time a charm?
Back at work and loving it. When I am off work and usually hanging at my wife’s parents house, I am constantly reminded how untechy the emerging markets are. Not talking like Bangkok which I am guessing some folks think is an emerging market – but it’s not. It is super hip and techy in a typical SEA way. You have to get further off the beaten path where life is still basic and tech is not infiltrated the world yet.
This is an area where getting a DSL line is possible but not worth it. Fiber is not possible so the best option was to pick up a wifi router that works with a SIM card. I used TRUE when I am in the sticks since it reliabily has 4G and pretty good packages. I loaded up the SIM with 16GB and it got me through a few weeks with everyone in the house using it.
But apart from basic connectivity and folks making calls, using facebook and whatsapp/line – tech is barely used. Twitter is nowhere to be seen and many of the power toys or apps are not even touched in this part of the world. I tend to think what everyone thinks is simple is actually still too hard for rural folk to wrap their head around.
Making things simple is super hard.
Brings me back to this post :: https://seedvc.blog/2016/12/25/magic/ – people sometimes forget how to make something super simple but incredibly useful. Like the AirPods. I know the haters will hate but you have to try them out to see how simple they are to connect, use and charge to get a sense for how amazing they are. Even my wife figured them out fast and wants a pair where normally she gets so frustrated by bluetooth stuff she stops even trying. Now she is trying to take my AirPods from me. 😉
This brings me back to thinking about AI and the beginner’s mind. Lately been using Google Photos after giving up on Flickr – why? Super simple to use, I know my stuff is backed up and it uses AI to do nice tricks like fixing photos, albums and keeping all my stuff in sync. It is making life easy for me when it comes to photos. Flickr used to but we all know what happened there.
There is some amazing stuff happening with AI and I can only imagine more to come. It will be interesting to see where it all goes but I am wondering who will tackle the killer stuff what will make life easier but is not the sexy stuff to work on? For example. My daughter needs to start a new school and the school sent me a 6 page PDF that needs filling out. Most of the form is mundane stuff – ID’s, phone numbers, addresses and so on. Lets say 50% or more is all boiler plate stuff. Wouldn’t it be cool if the email client or the OS or a cool app picked up the PDF, magically filled most of it out and then pinged me to print it and fill the rest up on my own? I would pay for that. Most of the info needed is on my phone anyway.
I know lots of folks are afraid of AI. I get why. I can see it in the rice fields of Thailand where now a machine takes over the work of harvesting that used to be done by people. Sure you can say these people have time for other things now but what? They worked for money and they don’t have skills to offer for that same amount of time that will pay. They are just sidelined and time saving tools won’t help them. I know the world has always gone through this but AI makes me think it might happen at a much bigger scale than we can imagine.
For sure I want code to help me and same me some time. I can think of many ways that will happen and wonder who will build these things but I also worry about the greater impact on humanity.
Check out this week’s Winners and Losers video :: https://www.l2inc.com/winners-losers-facebooks-roadkill/2016/blog
I myself I am not addicted to Snap but have played with it enough to see the potential. However I find it is not huge in Asia as compared to its dominance in America – which is why I think FB has a chance to keep chipping away at it given how huge FB is globally. I think the Spectacles are pretty cool and actually want a pair.
Mostly though I am writing this article to remind myself to check on on Prof to see if he is right. He is predicting that Snap will collapse in value in 2017. With Snap heading to an IPO – this is gonna be fun to watch.
However read this to see how people are trying to buy up Snap shares ahead of the IPO and you wonder if this is a frenzy or people lining up for the next FB stock story? :: https://www.theinformation.com/snapping-up-snap-ahead-of-ipo-proves-tough
Then there is this article :: http://fortune.com/2016/12/02/tech-snapchat-spectacles-ipo/ :
Snap’s second feat is its forthcoming IPO. In November the five-year-old company confidentially filed to go public, according to reports, defying conventional wisdom among highly valued startups. The latest generation of startup CEOs disdain the short-termism of quarterly earnings reports; they see going public as a necessary evil to be avoided as long as possible. But not Snap CEO Evan Spiegel. This year has seen the slowest IPO market since the 2008 financial crisis. Snap’s IPO will be the most talked-about debut since Alibaba went public in 2014.
I honestly don’t know how to predict what will happen. My guess is a massive IPO pop and they will use the stock to go on an acquisition spree to shore up all angles of their vision but I wonder if they can build the profits like FB can over time. I am doubtful.
Will be great to see the outcome and watch the Prof either celebrate or eat crow.
It is sometimes hard to fathom how much my career life has altered over the years. Restaurants, Banking IT, Legislative Data, Internet Sites, Middleware, Consumer Tech, Video Tech and now VC – apprentice VC at that.
For me joining Jungle, seedplus.com, was more an entrance to joining a firm in the making. Some people will refer to working at a fund but I tend to like the idea that I am working at a firm with many funds. It takes time to build a firm that will stand the test of time but you have to start somewhere. I am new to the journey at Jungle Ventures but super thankful to be here and super excited about the years to come.
Lots of articles today on the closing of Jungle II. At 100M this is 10x the size of Jungle I. Quite the story.
https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/30/jungle-ventures-100-million-fund-southeast-asia/
Stay tuned for more.
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